In this episode of Bettor Thinking, Dan Abrams (author of "But How Much Did You Lose?") challenges conventional sports betting wisdom with mathematical proof that will change how you think about bankroll management.

Dan explains why the common "never hedge" mentality is fundamentally flawed and demonstrates how negative EV hedges can actually maximize your bankroll's expected growth. Through clear examples and mathematical analysis, he breaks down:

• Why Expected Growth (EG) can be more important than Expected Value (EV) • The mathematics behind optimal position sizing • How the Kelly Criterion really works (and why most bettors misuse it) • Why most "flat bettors" aren't really flat betting • The truth about win rate ceilings for professional bettors • When negative EV hedges are the sharp play

This isn't your typical betting podcast with hot picks and empty promises. Instead, Dan provides advanced bankroll management strategies that separate the pros from the amateurs.

Whether you're betting hundreds or hundreds of thousands, this episode will fundamentally change how you approach position sizing and hedging opportunities.

Tags: Sports Betting, Gambling, Bankroll Management, Kelly Criterion, Sports Trading, Risk Management, Expected Value, Hedging Strategy

World-renowned behavioral economist Dan Ariely joins Better Thinking to explore why we make poor decisions and how to outsmart our own instincts. While not a sports bettor himself, Dr. Ariely's groundbreaking research into human behavior offers invaluable insights for anyone looking to make better betting decisions.

In this fascinating discussion, we explore: • Why humans are naturally poor at handling risk • How stress affects our ability to spot patterns • The psychology behind why we hold onto losing positions • Why some people thrive on uncertainty while others avoid it

Dr. Ariely, bestselling author and TED speaker, brings a fresh perspective to sports betting psychology that you won't find anywhere else. Whether you're a professional bettor or just getting started, this episode will change how you think about decision-making.

🎯 In this episode of The Bettor Thinking Podcast, we sit down with Ed Miller, a former Microsoft engineer turned professional gambler who's been crushing betting markets since 2003. From the poker boom to today's sports betting landscape, Ed breaks down where the real edges exist in modern betting markets.

🔑 Key Topics: • Why same-game parlays and live betting markets are still beatable • How correlation creates exploitable opportunities • The truth about "top-down" betting approaches • Real examples of profitable betting strategies • The evolution of betting markets from poker to sports betting

📚 Ed Miller's Must-Read Books: "The Logic of Sports Betting" "Interception: Modern Sports Betting"

🔗 Follow Ed Miller: Twitter: @EdMillerPoker

🎙️ Follow The Bettor Thinking Podcast: Twitter:@theSharpApp Instagram:@statsational Website: bettorthinkingpod.com

#SportsBetting #GamblingTips #BettingStrategy #SportsBettingAdvice #BettingEducation

The episode features Aaron Brown, a former professional gambler turned Wall Street quant trader and risk manager at AQR Capital Management. The conversation traces his fascinating journey from a 14-year-old poker player in Seattle to becoming a prominent figure in financial risk management.

Key Points Discussed:

1. Early Years:

• Started reading financial pages and horse racing data as a child
• Began playing poker at age 14 in Seattle taverns
• Used gambling to help pay for his Harvard education

1. Professional Gambling:

• Developed from local games to high-stakes private games
• Played with influential people including politicians, businessmen, and academics
• Emphasized the importance of social skills in professional gambling
• Discussed the evolution of poker from underground games to mainstream entertainment

1. Sports Betting:

• Explained the transformation of sports betting from mob-controlled to modern markets
• Discussed quantitative approaches to sports betting
• Emphasized the importance of getting bets down early and providing valuable information to bookmakers

1. Wall Street Career:

• Transitioned from gambling to quantitative trading in the 1980s
• Detailed the evolution of mathematical approaches on Wall Street
• Explained the transition from floor trading to quantitative analysis
• Discussed his role in mortgage-backed securities and derivatives

1. Risk Management Principles:

• Emphasized the importance of proper bet sizing
• Discussed Kelly Criterion and its applications
• Highlighted common mistakes in trading and betting
• Stressed the importance of emotional control in decision-making

  Books:

  • "The Poker Face of Wall Street" (2006) - https://www.amazon.com/Poker-Face-Wall-Street/dp/0470127317
  • "Red-Blooded Risk: The Secret History of Wall Street" (2011) - https://www.amazon.com/Red-Blooded-Risk-Secret-History-Street/dp/1118043863
  • "Financial Risk Management For Dummies" (2015) - https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Risk-Management-Dummies-Brown/dp/1119082200
  • "A World of Chance: Betting on Religion, Games, Wall Street" (co-authored with Reuven and Gabrielle Brenner) (2008) - https://www.amazon.com/World-Chance-Betting-Religion-Street/dp/0521884667

  Website:

  • Personal Website: http://www.eraider.com

  Professional Background:

  • Former Chief Risk Manager at AQR Capital Management
  • Columnist for Wilmott and Quantum magazines
  • Editorial Board member of the Global Association of Risk Professionals
  • Member of the National Book Critics Circle
  • Harvard University (SB in Applied Mathematics)
  • University of Chicago (MBA in Finance and Statistics)

  You can also find his articles and commentary on:

  • RealClearMarkets: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/authors/aaron_brown/
  • Goodreads Author Page: https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/229051.Aaron_Brown

Summary In this conversation, Joseph Buchdahl and John Alesia delve into the intricacies of sports betting, exploring the differences between sharp and recreational bookmakers, the psychological aspects of betting, and the importance of understanding true odds. They discuss cognitive biases, loss aversion, and the role of variance in betting outcomes. The conversation also touches on the wisdom of crowds in determining odds and the complexities of professional betting, including bankroll management and the psychological factors that influence betting behavior.

Takeaways The distinction between sharp and recreational bookmakers is crucial in understanding betting dynamics. Loss aversion significantly impacts bettors' psychology, making losses feel more painful than wins feel rewarding. Cognitive biases can lead bettors to overestimate their skills based on early wins. The wisdom of the crowd can help identify true odds in sports betting markets. Understanding true odds requires analyzing market dynamics and bookmaker behavior. Variance plays a significant role in betting outcomes, affecting both winning and losing streaks. Hedging can be a useful strategy for managing risk and reducing variance in betting. The anticipation of rewards drives the psychology of gambling, making 50-50 games particularly appealing. Professional betting is one of the hardest ways to make a living, requiring discipline and emotional detachment. The allure of betting often stems from the dopamine rush associated with potential wins. Chapters 00:00 Understanding the Wisdom of the Crowds in Sports Betting 07:10 The Dynamics of Betting Limits and Market Behavior 12:38 Cognitive Biases in Betting: Winning and Losing Perspectives 18:51 The Practical Application of Wisdom of the Crowds 29:04 Understanding Betting Psychology and Cognitive Biases 37:41 Variance and Betting Strategies 47:00 The Role of Dopamine in Gambling Behavior 55:06 The Intersection of Betting and Psychology Joseph Buchdahl Website ✅✅ https://www.football-data.co.uk/ ✅✅ ✅✅Squares and Sharps, Suckers and Sharks: The Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling ✅✅ https://www.amazon.com/Squares-Sharps-Suckers-Sharks-Psychology/dp/0857304844/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.zogBhfP0Bgy1ewy6dlv_Tv_0BgcePhvxIc4ZVs9BE8fxoNhzTbQo1ucEqtm4W0SBzxOz3PUHxbQrWNcedZnDPQ.YqgknAJw1QcQoT61Ym6SfwJjhQoqJELiWky4edDhi0c&dib_tag=se&qid=1734282896&refinements=p_27%3AJoseph+Buchdahl&s=books&sr=1-1 ✅✅ Monte Carlo Or Bust ✅✅ https://www.amazon.com/Monte-Carlo-Bust-Simulations-Aspiring-ebook/dp/B095SXTZ19/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=4baZI&content-id=amzn1.sym.05575cf6-d484-437c-b7e0-42887775cf30&pf_rd_p=05575cf6-d484-437c-b7e0-42887775cf30&pf_rd_r=132-1669558-1651255&pd_rd_wg=TTb8F&pd_rd_r=b2c578d2-a578-482c-8596-60cce62fa092&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk ✅✅ How to Find a Black Cat In A Coal Cellar ✅✅ https://www.amazon.com/How-Find-Black-Coal-Cellar-ebook/dp/B00EBNXNS8?ref_=ast_author_dp THE SHARP APP Get Sharp App: ✅✅ https://sharp.app ✅✅ Code THINKING35 for 35% off Discord ✅✅ https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq ✅✅